Jacksonville has been debating what to do with the Skyway for decades. Now, after years of planning to transform it into the Ultimate Urban Circulator, or U2C, JTA itself is reconsidering what the next phase should look like.

That makes this an unusually good moment to ask a question that has little to do with defending past decisions:

If Jacksonville were starting from scratch today, knowing everything we know now, would we build this system?

Would we choose autonomous vehicles? Would we rehabilitate the Skyway? Would we buy new trains? Would we put autonomous vehicles on the elevated structure? Would we keep them on Downtown streets and turn the Skyway into something else?

Or would we spend the money on an entirely different transportation strategy?

This isn't really a question about whether the original Skyway was a mistake or whether autonomous transportation is good or bad. It's about making the best decision from this point forward.

And interestingly, JTA is now asking many of the same questions.

The Original Problem Hasn't Changed

The Skyway has always suffered from a basic transportation problem: it doesn't go enough places.

The roughly 2.5-mile elevated system connects portions of Downtown, LaVilla and the Southbank, but its limited reach has constrained its usefulness as a broader transportation network. The U2C concept was designed partly to solve that problem by replacing the aging Skyway vehicles with autonomous vehicles capable of operating both on the elevated guideway and on ordinary streets.

That was the attraction.

Instead of continuing to build expensive elevated infrastructure, a vehicle could travel along the existing Skyway and then leave it to serve destinations in Brooklyn, Riverside, San Marco and elsewhere.

On paper, that's an intriguing idea.

But transportation technology has changed, Downtown Jacksonville has changed, the costs have changed, and JTA's own financial circumstances have changed.

So should the plan change too?

JTA Is Now Reconsidering the Original U2C Plan

The significance of what's happening in 2026 shouldn't be understated.

JTA has formally opened the future of the Skyway to alternatives. Its current study has considered rehabilitating the existing Skyway vehicles, purchasing new automated people-mover trains, converting the elevated structure for autonomous vehicles, removing the elevated structure and operating autonomous vehicles at street level, or converting the Skyway into a multiuse trail while keeping autonomous transportation on Downtown streets.

That means the original U2C concept—autonomous vehicles traveling on a converted Skyway—is no longer the only future under serious consideration.

In May, JTA went even further. It postponed its second round of community meetings until fall while evaluating the feedback it had received and announced that it would expand the review to include more traditional transit alternatives.

That's significant.

Jacksonville is no longer simply discussing how to complete U2C.

It's increasingly discussing what the best transportation solution actually is.

The Public's Answer Has Been Interesting

JTA's initial public feedback produced a result that probably would have sounded unlikely several years ago.

The most-supported option was not converting the Skyway to autonomous vehicles.

It was repurposing the elevated structure as a multiuse trail while operating autonomous vehicles at street level.

The second-most-supported alternative was purchasing new automated people-mover trains for the Skyway.

Those are very different ideas, but they have something in common.

Neither represents simply proceeding with the original plan.

Earlier survey results showed the public largely divided between an elevated trail and modern replacement trains, with relatively little enthusiasm for simply demolishing the Skyway infrastructure.

That suggests Jacksonville residents may be saying something more nuanced than either “save the Skyway” or “tear it down.”

They appear interested in preserving the value of infrastructure Jacksonville already owns while reconsidering what that infrastructure should actually do.

Then There's NAVI

The first operational component of U2C is already here.

NAVI—JTA's Neighborhood Autonomous Vehicle Innovation service—began operating autonomous shuttles along a Downtown route in 2025. It was intended to demonstrate the technology that could eventually become part of the much larger U2C network.

That makes NAVI valuable for another reason:

Jacksonville now has actual experience instead of projections.

We can ask how many people use it. We can examine reliability. We can calculate operating costs. We can determine the taxpayer subsidy per passenger. We can ask whether riders find it useful and whether the technology performs better than conventional alternatives.

And, perhaps most importantly, we can compare those results with what Jacksonville could accomplish using conventional buses, bus rapid transit, modern people movers or other transportation options.

That's how a demonstration project should work.

The purpose isn't to prove the original idea was right.

It's to generate information that helps determine what comes next.

This Is Where the $17.5 Million Budget Gap Matters

Part 4 of this series examined JTA's projected $17.5 million FY2027 budget gap and the resulting service reductions.

That changes the context of the U2C discussion.

It would be overly simplistic to suggest that money allocated to U2C could simply be transferred dollar-for-dollar into bus operations. Capital projects often rely on dedicated federal, state and local funding that can't simply be redirected to ordinary operating expenses.

But every new transportation system eventually creates another question:

What will it cost to operate?

Jacksonville shouldn't evaluate U2C—or any alternative—solely on what grants are available to build it.

The city should also know what each alternative will cost every year afterward.

That's especially important when JTA is simultaneously reducing frequencies on conventional bus routes because its operating budget isn't balancing.

Don't Confuse Money Already Spent With Money We Still Have to Spend

This may be the most important principle in the entire U2C discussion.

Jacksonville has already invested substantial money, political capital and years of planning into autonomous transportation.

That money matters historically.

But it shouldn't determine the next decision.

Economists have a term for this: the sunk-cost problem.

Once money has been spent and can't be recovered, the rational question isn't:

“How do we justify what we've already spent?”

It's:

“From today forward, which option gives Jacksonville the greatest value for the money we haven't spent yet?”

If continuing U2C is the best answer, continue it.

If modern people-mover trains are better, Jacksonville should be willing to say so.

If autonomous vehicles work best at street level while the elevated structure becomes something entirely different, examine that.

And if another traditional transit alternative provides greater mobility for the same investment, that should be considered too.

Changing course after receiving new information isn't necessarily failure.

Sometimes refusing to change course is.

What Problem Are We Actually Trying to Solve?

Before choosing technology, Jacksonville should define the transportation problem.

Is the objective primarily moving people around Downtown?

Connecting Downtown with Riverside, Brooklyn and San Marco?

Providing transportation between parking facilities, offices, entertainment venues and residential developments?

Connecting neighborhoods with the regional bus network?

Supporting Downtown redevelopment?

Reducing automobile dependence?

Or demonstrating emerging autonomous technology?

Those aren't necessarily the same mission.

And the answer matters because Jacksonville shouldn't select a transportation technology and then search for a problem that justifies it.

Define the mobility problem first. Then choose the technology that solves it best.

Downtown Has Changed Since U2C Was Conceived

Jacksonville's Downtown development picture is also different today.

Billions of dollars in public and private investment are reshaping the riverfront, stadium district, Brooklyn and other parts of the urban core. Residential development continues to expand. New parks and entertainment destinations are changing where people may want to travel.

That creates an opportunity to reconsider the network around where Downtown is going, not simply where it was when U2C was originally planned.

A transportation system designed today should connect the places Jacksonville expects people to live, work and visit ten or twenty years from now.

That may strengthen the case for U2C.

It may strengthen the case for expanding a conventional people mover.

It may support better bus rapid transit.

Or it may point toward some combination.

But Jacksonville should conduct that comparison now.

The Elevated Trail Idea Deserves Serious Analysis Too

Converting the Skyway into a pedestrian and bicycle trail has attracted the strongest initial public support. JTA's concept would preserve the elevated infrastructure while placing autonomous vehicles on streets below.

There are obvious attractions. It could become a distinctive Downtown amenity, potentially connect with Jacksonville's growing trail network and preserve an expensive piece of infrastructure rather than demolishing it.

But enthusiasm shouldn't substitute for analysis here either.

Jacksonville should know what conversion would cost, how people would access the elevated trail, how it would function during extreme heat and storms, what ongoing maintenance would cost and whether the projected usage justifies the investment.

The same standard should apply to every option.

Maybe the Answer Is Still U2C

That's worth emphasizing.

Reconsidering U2C doesn't mean the answer has already been determined.

Autonomous transportation continues to advance. The ability to use smaller vehicles that can leave a dedicated guideway and travel directly to destinations could eventually provide advantages conventional rail cannot.

JTA has spent years developing expertise in the technology, and Jacksonville could ultimately benefit from being an early adopter if autonomous transit becomes widely viable.

But being an early adopter has another implication:

Sometimes you're the city that discovers what doesn't work.

Innovation inherently involves uncertainty.

The question is how much financial and operational risk Jacksonville should accept to pursue it—and what measurable results should determine whether the experiment expands.

Put the Alternatives on One Page

Before JTA commits to the next major phase, Jacksonville taxpayers should be able to see a straightforward comparison.

For each alternative, show the remaining capital cost, expected federal and state contributions, local taxpayer contribution, annual operating cost, projected ridership, capacity, cost per passenger trip, expected useful life, geographic reach and potential for future expansion.

Then include the option too often missing from major infrastructure discussions:

What else could Jacksonville buy with the same money?

If $100 million spent one way moves substantially fewer people than $100 million spent another way, taxpayers should know that.

If one alternative costs more but produces dramatically greater economic or mobility benefits, show that too.

Let the numbers compete.

This Doesn't Need to Become a Referendum on the Past

Jacksonville could spend another decade arguing about whether the Skyway should have been built.

It won't change anything.

The structure exists.

NAVI exists.

Money has already been spent.

Technology has evolved.

And now JTA itself is examining alternatives.

That's why the question facing Jacksonville in 2026 is considerably more useful:

Then compare that answer with what we're currently planning.

If they're the same, that's a powerful argument for continuing.

If they're different, Jacksonville should have the courage to ask why.

Because the goal shouldn't be to prove that Jacksonville's previous transportation decisions were right.

The goal should be making the next decision right.

And with JTA reconsidering the Skyway, expanding its analysis to traditional transit alternatives, facing financial pressures and preparing for new leadership, Jacksonville may have its best opportunity in years to do exactly that.

Coming in Part 6 of JTA at a Crossroads: What Should JTA's Next CEO Actually Be Hired to Fix?