Jacksonville Is a Top Boomtown. How Does It Compare With Tampa, Orlando and Miami?

John Hawley

Sep 8, 2026

Jacksonville’s Development Divide: Part V - The 101 Report

Jacksonville didn’t suddenly become a boomtown in 2026. LendingTree ranked the metro No. 5 nationally in its earlier COVID-era study. Its newest analysis, published in August 2026 using 2023–24 data, puts Jacksonville No. 7 among the nation’s 50 largest metros.

But Jacksonville wasn’t booming alone. Tampa ranks No. 5, Jacksonville No. 7 and Orlando No. 8. Miami ranks No. 16. Three Florida metros are among America’s Top 10, part of a broader post-COVID migration and development surge across the South.

Now that boom is changing. Florida migration has slowed, growth is shifting geographically, and Jacksonville’s latest labor-market numbers no longer resemble the extraordinary workforce expansion that helped produce its ranking.

The question isn’t whether Jacksonville boomed. It did. The question is what happens next.

Jacksonville Ranks No. 7 Among America’s Top Boomtowns

LendingTree measures eight factors across three equally weighted categories: People & Housing, Work & Earnings, and Business & Economy. Jacksonville scored 67.2 in People & Housing, 66.3 in Work & Earnings and 43.6 in Business & Economy, producing an overall score of 59.0 and the No. 7 ranking.

The underlying numbers explain why: population +2.8%, housing units +2.3%, workforce +5.6%, median earnings +2.1%, real GDP +3.5% and business applications −5.8%. Jacksonville’s workforce growth was the highest among all 50 metros, while its People & Housing performance ranked fourth.

Jacksonville earned its ranking. But its greatest strength came from people, housing and workforce growth, not every part of the economy.

Jacksonville Was Already a Top-Five Boomtown During the Post-COVID Surge

Jacksonville’s boom began well before the newest study. LendingTree’s earlier COVID-era analysis ranked Jacksonville No. 5 nationally, showing the region was already benefiting from Florida’s extraordinary migration and development surge.

A consistent Census population-estimate series shows the Jacksonville metro growing from about 1.61 million residents in 2020 to roughly 1.79 million in 2025. Growth accelerated during the early post-COVID years before moderating: roughly 1.8% in 2020–21, 2.5% in 2021–22, 2.6% in 2022–23, 1.9% in 2023–24 and 1.5% in 2024–25.

Those Census estimates use a different methodology from LendingTree’s ACS figures, so they aren’t interchangeable. But the trajectory is clear: Jacksonville’s boom started earlier, continued through LendingTree’s measurement period and has since slowed.

Florida’s Post-COVID Population Boom Was Bigger Than Jacksonville

Jacksonville’s growth makes more sense as part of a larger Florida story. At the state’s migration peak in 2022, Florida gained nearly 599,000 residents through migration—about 1,640 people per day. By 2025, that had fallen to about 201,000, or 551 per day.

Where people are moving is changing too. Some of Florida’s largest and most expensive counties are losing domestic residents while mid-sized counties continue attracting them. Florida isn’t experiencing one uniform boom. It is experiencing different stages of the same growth cycle in different places.

Tampa vs. Jacksonville: Why Tampa Ranks No. 5 and Jacksonville No. 7

Tampa ranks ahead of Jacksonville overall, but not because it grew faster in every category. Jacksonville’s 67.2 People & Housing score easily exceeds Tampa’s 51.9. Jacksonville also posted stronger population, housing and workforce growth.

Tampa’s advantage came elsewhere. Its Work & Earnings score was 77.1 versus Jacksonville’s 66.3, while Business & Economy was 51.9 versus 43.6. Tampa’s median earnings increased 7.8%, compared with Jacksonville’s 2.1%, and business applications declined just 0.4%, compared with Jacksonville’s 5.8% decline.

So which metro was booming more? It depends on what you measure. Tampa performed better economically; Jacksonville performed better in population, housing and workforce growth.

Orlando vs. Jacksonville: Two Florida Boomtowns Growing Differently

Orlando sits immediately behind Jacksonville at No. 8, but its People & Housing score of 76.0 exceeds Jacksonville’s 67.2. Orlando’s population grew 4.3% compared with Jacksonville’s 2.8%.

Jacksonville performed better in Work & Earnings and Business & Economy. Its workforce grew 5.6% versus Orlando’s 5.3%, while Orlando experienced a larger 7.2% decline in business applications. Both posted 3.5% real GDP growth.

Orlando therefore represents another version of Florida’s boom: exceptionally strong population growth without equally strong performance across every economic measure.

Miami vs. Jacksonville: When Population Growth Outruns Housing

Miami recorded 4.4% population growth—the highest among all 50 metros—yet ranked only No. 16 overall. One reason stands out: its housing stock increased only 0.6%, compared with Jacksonville’s 2.3%. Miami also posted weaker GDP growth and a lower Business & Economy score.

Miami faces constraints Jacksonville does not. The ocean, Everglades, environmental protections and an already dense urban footprint limit outward expansion, pushing more growth toward infill, redevelopment and density. That makes Miami useful not as a prediction of Jacksonville’s future, but as a warning about what can happen when strong demand eventually collides with limited housing supply and escalating costs.

And the migration pattern has already changed. Miami-Dade lost 72,254 residents through domestic migration in 2025, while international migration added 54,204. Overall population fell by about 10,115. Domestic losses have also accelerated from about 40,000 in 2021 to more than 72,000 in 2025.

Miami can attract investment, international residents and wealth while simultaneously losing domestic residents. Economic growth and resident prosperity aren’t necessarily the same thing.

Lakeland and Polk County Show Where Florida’s Growth Is Moving

Polk County represents another Florida growth model. Lakeland ranked No. 3 nationally in LendingTree’s earlier boomtown study, ahead of Jacksonville at No. 5. More recently, Polk has continued attracting domestic residents even as migration has slowed or reversed in several larger Florida counties.

Polk has ranked among the nation’s top five counties for domestic migration every year since 2021, according to University of Florida researchers. And much of that movement is happening within Florida: during the 2021–23 surge, about 59% of domestic newcomers to Polk and Pasco came from other Florida counties.

As established metropolitan areas become more expensive, households can look toward places with available land and more attainable housing. Development follows—and yesterday’s affordable alternative can become tomorrow’s high-growth market.

St. Johns County Growth Shows Affordability Isn’t the Only Reason People Move

St. Johns County breaks that affordability narrative. It isn’t inexpensive, yet its population has increased by roughly 27% since 2020. Higher incomes, newer housing, master-planned communities, schools, coastal access and proximity to Jacksonville make it a different kind of growth market.

That rapid residential expansion creates its own challenge. St. Johns does not have Jacksonville’s scale of commercial and industrial economy. New homes expand the tax base, but they also require roads, schools, public safety, utilities and other infrastructure.

The question isn’t simply how fast St. Johns can grow. It’s whether its employment, commercial development and tax base can keep pace with the residential growth.

Florida’s Growth Is Moving—But Not for One Reason

Put the Florida markets together and a more complicated picture emerges.

Miami shows the pressures created by constrained housing supply. Polk and Lakeland show households moving toward more attainable communities. St. Johns demonstrates that affluent households will continue moving into an expensive market when they value what it offers. Tampa and Orlando show still other combinations of employment, earnings, population and housing growth.

Jacksonville sits somewhere among them.

That helps explain why Northeast Florida remains attractive—and why simply saying people are moving north because it is cheaper misses part of the story.

Jacksonville Still Has Something South Florida Doesn’t: Room to Grow

Jacksonville still has substantial developable land, along with an established employment base spanning logistics, financial services, health care, manufacturing, port activity and other industries. It also has expensive coastal communities, relatively affordable neighborhoods and rapid suburban expansion into St. Johns, Nassau and Clay counties.

That combination is a significant advantage. But more land doesn’t guarantee permanent affordability.

As development spreads, land prices rise, infrastructure has to follow, commutes can lengthen and existing neighborhoods can face redevelopment pressure. Jacksonville still has room to expand housing supply. The question is whether Northeast Florida uses that advantage before scarcity becomes much harder—and more expensive—to solve.

Jacksonville’s Population Is Still Growing, but More Slowly

Jacksonville hasn’t stopped growing. Its metro population reached roughly 1.79 million in 2025, continuing an expansion that has added well over 100,000 residents since 2020.

But the pace has moderated. Annual population growth in the consistent Census estimate series fell from roughly 2.5%–2.6% during the strongest post-COVID years to about 1.5% in 2024–25.

That remains meaningful growth. It simply isn’t the same acceleration Jacksonville experienced earlier in the decade.

Jacksonville’s Job Market Has Cooled Since the Boomtown Period

The labor market shows a sharper change. LendingTree measured 5.6% workforce growth during 2023–24, the strongest among all 50 metros.

That surge hasn’t continued. Jacksonville’s annual-average unemployment rate increased from about 3.4% in 2024 to 4.1% in 2025. By July 2026, unemployment was approximately 4.9%, while year-over-year payroll employment growth was only about 0.4%.

That doesn’t establish a recession. It does show that Jacksonville’s current labor market looks substantially different from the one behind its No. 7 boomtown ranking.

Jacksonville’s Business Numbers Tell a More Mixed Story

LendingTree’s own 2023–24 data contained a warning sign: Jacksonville business applications declined 5.8%, contributing to a Business & Economy score of 43.6 and a No. 16 ranking in that category.

Newer business-formation data deserve consideration, but not a manufactured LendingTree score. Several federal datasets needed to reproduce all eight measurements for 2024–25 are not yet available on the same basis.

That's an important distinction: a methodologically sound ranking can still describe an economy that has changed since the period it measured.

Growth and Prosperity Aren’t the Same Thing

Population growth doesn’t tell us whether existing residents can afford housing. Housing growth doesn’t tell us who can afford the new homes. GDP growth doesn’t tell us how evenly prosperity is distributed.

That divide is visible within Northeast Florida itself. St. Johns County has substantially higher household incomes and lower poverty than Duval, while Jacksonville supports much of the region’s broader employment and commercial economy.

The question for Jacksonville therefore isn’t simply how many people are coming. It’s whether employment, earnings, housing and infrastructure keep pace with the population.

What Florida’s Growth Shift Means for Jacksonville Housing Policy

Jacksonville has an opportunity that more constrained Florida markets increasingly lack: it can still add substantial housing supply.

That makes decisions involving zoning, density, permitting and infrastructure consequential for existing residents as well as newcomers. If supply falls behind population, housing costs rise. If development sprawls outward without adequate infrastructure or nearby employment, cheaper housing can be offset by congestion, transportation costs and longer commutes.

The goal shouldn’t simply be more development. It should be growth that remains affordable and livable.

Mayor Deegan Is Addressing Housing and Growth Pressures

Mayor Donna Deegan’s administration has placed significant emphasis on housing, affordability, homelessness, infrastructure and economic development. Those efforts should be evaluated against the economic conditions Jacksonville actually faces.

Increasing housing supply can reduce pressure. Development incentives can help projects overcome financial barriers. A growing population requires infrastructure and services. The appropriate debate is whether individual programs work, what they cost and whether they produce sufficient public benefit.

That becomes particularly important as Jacksonville spends heavily to encourage development in some parts of the city while residents elsewhere face their own affordability and infrastructure pressures.

Jacksonville’s Boom Spans the Curry and Deegan Administrations

Jacksonville was already No. 5 in LendingTree’s earlier boomtown analysis before Deegan took office. The newest study measures 2023–24, spanning the transition from Mayor Lenny Curry to Deegan.

Economic development also operates on long timelines. Housing completed in 2024 may have been planned and financed years earlier. Businesses, migration and employment respond to state and national conditions as well as local policy.

The rankings establish that Jacksonville grew rapidly. They don’t establish that either mayor single-handedly caused it.

A 2026 Boomtown Ranking Doesn’t Measure Jacksonville’s 2026 Economy

LendingTree published its latest ranking on August 24, 2026, but the study compares 2023 and 2024. LendingTree says it selected those years to maintain consistency across federal datasets following changes in metropolitan definitions and data availability.

That's methodologically reasonable. But publication date and measurement date aren't the same thing.

A positive boomtown ranking can become political ammunition. So can weaker 2026 employment numbers. Neither tells the whole story.

The more useful question is whether Jacksonville's policies reflect where the economy is going rather than where it was two years ago.

Florida’s Boom Is Changing. What Comes Next for Jacksonville?

Florida's post-COVID boom was real, and Jacksonville was one of its strongest participants. But the state's different growth markets show what can happen next.

Miami demonstrates what happens when demand collides with constrained housing supply. Tampa shows stronger work-and-earnings performance. Orlando continues to post exceptional population growth. Polk and Lakeland show growth moving toward more attainable communities. St. Johns shows that affluent residential migration can remain powerful even where housing is expensive.

Jacksonville sits somewhere among all of them. It still has developable land, a diverse employment base, major infrastructure, established neighborhoods and rapidly growing neighboring counties.

Those are significant advantages. They don't guarantee that Jacksonville will remain affordable—or that every resident will benefit equally from growth.

Florida's post-COVID boom didn't end everywhere at once. It changed, and in some places it moved.

The challenge now isn't proving Jacksonville experienced a boom. It did.

The challenge is turning the next phase of growth into enough housing, employment, infrastructure and economic opportunity to keep Northeast Florida attractive without pricing out the people who already call it home.

That's the development divide.