After years of skyrocketing growth, Jacksonville’s housing market is cooling—and fast. While the median home in Duval County listed for $308,935 in April, that figure reflects a 6.4% drop from a year ago. And Jacksonville isn’t alone. A broader slowdown is gripping Florida, but the River City stands out as one of the most sluggish markets in the country.

Nationally, home prices are still inching up, but at the slowest pace in nearly two years. Florida, once the poster child of pandemic-era migration and real estate frenzy, is now wrestling with high inventory, stalled demand, and nervous buyers. Jacksonville, in particular, is emerging as a flashpoint for the state’s market correction.

Why Jacksonville?

According to KB Home executives, Jacksonville had the softest sales performance in the company’s national portfolio in Q1 2025. Seven months of unsold inventory, 15% drops in pending sales, and a nearly 28% rate of price reductions on listings paint a picture of a market searching for equilibrium.

It’s a sharp reversal for a city that rode high during the pandemic boom, attracting remote workers and out-of-state buyers with relative affordability and space. But now, the tide has turned.

Several factors are at play:

• Affordability ceiling: The pandemic-era surge pushed prices beyond what many local buyers can afford.

• Rising mortgage rates: Hovering around 7%, they’ve eroded buying power and thinned the pool of qualified buyers.

• Insurance and risk aversion: Florida’s rising home insurance premiums, fueled by climate risk and litigation costs, are discouraging buyers.

• Post-COVID migration slowdown: Florida’s migration boom has cooled. More people are looking to nearby states like Georgia, the Carolinas, and Tennessee, where costs are lower and weather risks less severe.

How It Compares

Jacksonville is now one of just 11 major metros to see year-over-year price declines, with a 2.2% drop—more than Miami or Tampa. Inventory in Northeast Florida has surged over 70% since last year, and homes now sit on the market for a median of 63 days—compared to just 13 days in top-performing metros like Grand Rapids, Michigan.

While the median sale price for single-family homes in Northeast Florida fell to $376,990 in December, statewide prices hovered around $440,000. Nationally, the median home price reached $431,250 in April, driven by sustained demand in coastal cities where incomes and job growth remain strong.

Who Benefits?

Buyers, mostly. After years of frustration, they now enjoy a market with more choices and room to negotiate. Price cuts, reduced rents, and seller concessions are rebalancing the playing field. In Jacksonville, asking rents have dropped 6% over the past year, reflecting the influx of apartment supply and weaker demand.

Builders, paradoxically, are adapting. Companies like KB Home have slashed prices—up to $30,000 per home in some Florida communities—and offered mortgage support. These moves are starting to stimulate activity, though margins remain squeezed.

Investors and cash buyers are also better positioned, especially as borrowing costs sideline traditional homebuyers. With less competition and more leverage, they’re scooping up deals in a more balanced market.

What’s the Outlook?

Despite the slowdown, experts aren’t forecasting a crash. Instead, Jacksonville appears to be undergoing a necessary correction after an overheated surge. As Redfin’s Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather puts it, more inventory means “a renter’s market” and, for buyers, long-overdue negotiating power.

Most analysts expect price growth in Florida to continue softening through 2025. Higher interest rates are likely to linger, and geopolitical and economic uncertainty—particularly around Donald Trump’s proposed housing deregulation and tariff policies—could further spook cautious buyers.

But long-term fundamentals still favor growth in Florida, including Jacksonville. The state remains a top destination for net migration, and while some are leaving due to insurance and affordability concerns, new household formation and population growth continue to drive housing needs.

Jacksonville’s housing market is no longer red-hot—but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. What we’re witnessing may be a market normalization, with winners and losers reshuffling as conditions shift. Buyers have more leverage. Builders must be more competitive. Sellers will need to adjust their expectations. And policymakers would be wise to address the structural issues—insurance reform, housing affordability, and climate resilience—that now define Florida’s real estate landscape.

The boom is over, but the story isn’t. Jacksonville’s next chapter will depend on how well it adapts to a more measured, and more challenging, housing future.